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Aeroplanes losing their way in the sky

27/03/201913/08/2024
by Dan Odido

The exchange between the pilot and the air traffic controller obtained from voice recordings is hilarious, and it is just as well that the passengers could not hear it.

I am not at your airport!

“I assume I’m not at your airport”, says one of the pilots of the Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 Flight 4013 to the controller in Branson, Missouri the intended destination. “4013, um, have you landed?” responds the controller.

It turns out that the aircraft had landed at Taney County airport. Taney County airport’s runway is 3,738 feet, about half the length of Branson’s runway at 7,140 feet. A Boeing 737-7H4 of the type used in this flight typically requires 5,500 feet of runway, depending on several conditions including aircraft loading, weather, wind and runway condition.

Wrong airport, wrong country, opposite direction…

Evidently the saga of British Airways Flight BA3271 from London landing in Edinburgh Airport still in UK, instead of Dusseldorf in Germany on Sunday March 24, 2019 is not a unique case. Passengers were bemused to learn that they had landed in Edinburgh instead of Dusseldorf in Germany. It is akin to booking a flight from Nairobi to Zanzibar then ending up in Lodwar instead. Edinburgh and Dusseldorf are actually in opposite directions from each other!

The BAe 146-200 aircraft in Flight BA3271 was operated by a German charter company, WDL Aviation. The mix-up was due to the mis-filing of the flight plan. The aircraft subsequently took off from Edinburgh two and a half hours later and reached its intended destination five hours late. This will probably cost the airline. Competitors Ryanair could not resist ribbing the legacy carrier. In a tweet Ryanair offered British Airways a geography course for dummies…

The cases of British Airways Flight BA3271 and Southern Airlines Flight 4013 may superficially look similar, both involving airliners landing in the wrong airport. They are however fundamentally different. The former case of a mis-filed flight plan is an error of planning, whereas the in the latter case the aircraft was headed for the right airport but ended up at a different airport. This is an error of execution.

Flight plan error – Planning error

A flight plan is a document filed by a pilot or a flight dispatcher with the local Civil Aviation Authority prior to departure. It indicates the aircraft’s planned route or flight path. A flight plan generally includes basic information such as departure and arrival points, estimated time of flight, alternate airports in case of bad weather. It also includes the type of flight, whether using instrument or visual flight rules, the pilot’s information, the number of people on board and information about the aircraft itself. A flight plan includes two safety-critical aspects: these are the fuel calculation, and compliance with air traffic control requirements to minimise risk of midair collision. A wrongly filed flight plan is therefore an error in planning.

The saving grace is that the wrong paperwork will guarantees that the pilots and air traffic controllers are all reading from the same page; they all (incorrectly!) believe that the aeroplane is going to a particular destination, but correctly plan for it. The worst that can happen is that the passengers waste their time, and possibly miss connecting flights.

Execution error

Execution errors occur relatively frequently, especially if there is more than one airfield in close proximity. The airfield is usually a military base or a general aviation airport. This poses a danger because general aviation airports are usually smaller, with shorter runways. They also do not have requisite facilities to handle large commercial aircraft.

Cases of an aircraft appearing at the wrong airport however exposes the passengers to several other risks. Short runways are not the only hazard. Runways at higher elevation pose a great risk, since an aircraft will require a longer length to land. Other aircraft operating at the airport will not be aware of the potential conflicting traffic. Air traffic controllers may not detect a wrong airport landing in time to intervene because of other workload or radar coverage limitations.

Similar runways, same heading

It is not uncommon for runways of airports close to have the same heading; The general wind direction is usually the same, leading to similar construction. Runways are usually constructed to take advantage of the prevailing wind conditions, making runways in close proximity to have similar headings. Error is possible when two airfields are in close proximity and the pilot relies on visual instead of instruments and charts. ATC is also sometimes to blame. Night time errors are more frequent since pilots are attracted by the runway lights of the first airport that they see after commencing descent.

On December 18 2013, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 767, Flight ET-815 bound for Kilimanjaro International Airport (JRO) mistakenly landed at Arusha Airport (ARK). The aircraft had 223 persons on board. The pilot had been informed of a light aircraft, a disabled Cessna Caravan on the runway. He was directed to land in runway 27, but instead landed in runway 27 of Arusha Airport. It appears that during descent the pilot saw an airport and prematurely abandoned the given procedure. He subsequently joined left downwind for runway 27 Arusha Airport while believing that he was proceeding to land at Kilimanjaro. His downwind position report was not challenged by the Kilimanjaro controller who should have had him in sight in that position.

Short runway

Perhaps the worst case of wrong airport occurred on January 17 2019. A Saha Airlines Boeing 707 intending to land at Payam Airport landed at the much smaller Fath Airport with a runway length of only 1,300 metres (4,300 feet). A Boeing 707 generally requires a runway length of more than 2,500 metres (8,200 feet). It overran the runway and crashed into houses past the end of the runway killing 15 of the 16 on board. The houses were empty at the time of the crash.The weather was also reported to be bad. The flight engineer is reported to have stated “We followed normal procedure and landed normally. Then all of a sudden we found ourselves at the end of the runway. It all happened so fast there was no time for any kind of reaction, not even a shout or a comment.”

Previously on November 16 2018, a Taban Airlines MD-88 carrying 155 passengers attempted to land on the same runway twice, mistaking it for the Payam runway, which is nearly inline. The aeroplane reached an altitude of 1 m on the first approach, before aborting the attempt. It aborted a second attempt, before making a safe landing at Payam.

The runways of the airports at Payam and Fath are almost in line. The thresholds of runways 30 and 31L are 10km apart. Often airports that have confused one crew, confuse other crew. Some airports are notorious for causing confusion.

Modern navigation systems accurate

It is an achievement that with modern air navigation systems, most flights end up in the right airports!

Passengers can however arrive at the wrong airport for totally different reasons, unrelated to flight or supporting crew. Some destinations regularly confuse travellers as they book their flights.

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Dan Odido

Dan Odido is an aeronautical engineer and a university lecturer. He has been Head of the Departments of Flying Studies ; and Aerospace Security and Logistics in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University in Kenya.

www.aerospacekenya.com

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Crash investigations focus on ‘Why’, and not ‘Whodunnit’

21/03/201928/10/2019
by Dan Odido

An accident investigation hearing is conducted by non-flying experts who need six months to itemize all the mistakes made by a crew in the six minutes it had to do anything. – Anonymous

Aviation does not waste any crisis…

The aviation industry does not waste any aircraft accident or serious incident.

Every aviation accident or serious incident provides an opportunity to learn from gaps in operating procedures or technology. It provokes improvement within the whole industry, with the result that aviation has become the safest mode of transportation. Global aviation regulator, International Civil Aviation Organisation, ICAO has already proposed some recommendations in the wake of the baffling disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370. It proposes the introduction of a global system for tracking airliners. There is also a suggestion to extend the duration of cockpit voice recorders to 25 hours from the current 2 hours.

Accident investigation is carried out in accordance with Annex 13 of the Chicago Convention (Annex 13 – Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation).

Crash investigations focus on the ‘why’, not ‘who’s fault’

The objective of the investigation of an accident or serious incident is to prevent future accidents and incidents, and not to apportion blame or liability. The issue of liability does however rear its head in indemnity claims for victims, especially if blatant negligence or technical fault is demonstrated.

Responsibility for accident investigation

Annex 13 indicates the States which may participate in an investigation. The State in which the accident or serious incident occurs has the first precedence in responsibility for carrying out the investigation. It may however delegate part or all of the investigation to another State. The State in which the accident occurs also takes all reasonable measures to protect the evidence and to maintain safe custody of the aircraft and its contents during the investigation.

In some cases the accident occurs in a location that is not within the territory of any State. The State in which the aircraft is registered conducts the investigation in such a case. It may also delegate this responsibility. This may sometimes lead to dispute.

A Boeing 767 that was operating as EgyptAir Flight 990 on a scheduled flight from Los Angeles to Cairo crashed into the Atlantic Ocean killing all 217 on board in 1999 . The onus was on Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority, ECAA to investigate the accident. It however handed the investigation over to USA’s National Transportation Safety Board, NTSB since it lacked the required resources to salvage the aircraft. ECAA backtracked two weeks later when NTSB invited the FBI, arguing that the evidence suggested an intentional criminal act. The two organisations subsequently carried out parallel investigations. ECAA ended up attributing the crash to mechanical failure while NTSB blamed intentional actions of the First Officer.

Other interested parties

The State of Registry; the State of Operator; and the State of Design and Manufacture of the Airframe and the Engine are each entitled to appoint accredited representatives to participate in the investigation. States whose citizens have suffered fatalities are also entitled to appoint an expert to participate in the investigation. The International Civil Aviation Organisation, ICAO is informed of accidents that involve aircraft of a maximum mass of over 2,250 kg.

The investigators produce a preliminary report within the first month. ICAO recommends that investigations be completed within one year. In case this is not possible, an interim report is issued on the first anniversary of the accident. Progress reports are made in subsequent anniversaries. A copy of the Final Report into the investigation into an accident or an incident involving an aircraft of a maximum mass of over 5,700 kg is sent to ICAO. Accident investigations can take a long time, and duration of five years is not unusual.

Evolution of Flight Safety

Safety in aviation has evolved over the years. The industry recorded the first aeroplane crash in 1908. This occurred when a propeller broke in a demonstration flight of the Wright Military Flyer that was being flown by Orville Wright. The accident resulted in one fatality.

Technical faults were common in the early years of the industry. The series of accidents that dogged the first jet airliner, de Havilland Comet was characteristic of this era. These initially unfathomable Comet accidents laid the foundation for introduction of aircraft accident investigation techniques and technologies that are still used to date. One of these is the deployment of the ‘black box’ (Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder) in aircraft with the express purpose of post-crash examination. These are now deployed in all modern airliners.

http://www.ntsb.gov/Events/symp_rec/proceedings/authors/grossi.htm — Aircraft ‘black boxes’ are not black! Cockpit Voice Recorder (L) and Flight Data Recorder (R) Both have an underwater locator beacon (ULB) on the front that emit radio signals to assist in retrieval under water.

The contribution of human factors to aircraft accidents became predominant as the technology matured and technical faults were rectified. Human error is currently cited as the leading cause of most accidents. Pilot error contributes the largest portion. Organisational issues have also taken on a big share of accident causes in the present time.

No single cause: The Swiss cheese Model

Accidents are generally caused by several factors, and do not result from a single fault point. The aviation system is a complex productive system that involves interaction of man and machines. Most aircraft systems utilise redundant design, meaning that a single failure is unlikely to lead to an accident, or even an incident; engines, control and other vital systems are usually duplicated.

Prof. James Reason proposed a model that is often used to understand the dynamics of the interaction between man and technology. This is now popularly referred to as ‘Reason’s model’, or the ‘Swiss cheese model’. The model identifies two types of failure. Active failures occur at the operational level. An example is the type of errors made by the pilot, mechanic or air traffic controller. The second type of error is referred to as ‘latent failures’. These failures result from decisions made far removed in time and space. Examples are the organisational culture.

Accident investigations will typically identify several causes, both active and latent. These are subsequently communicated to the rest of the industry to avoid recurrence due to a similar cause.

Davidmack [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)] — Reason’s Concept of Accident Causation. An accident occurs when all holes line up

Dominance of pilot error as the cause of accidents

Pilot error is cited for 50% of accidents in aviation. This does not in any way mean that aircraft pilots are a particularly careless group of professionals! On the contrary, it demonstrates the extremely high level of professional competence expected from them. They are the last line of defence, and are supposed to be able to contain all other errors made elsewhere along the chain and redeem a deteriorating situation. This may still seem unfair, since the pilots often have a short time to respond to a rapidly evolving emergency. Investigators after the fact have all the time to analyse and theorise on what could have been done differently.

Spectacular demonstration of airmanship by some pilots

Several pilots have acquitted themselves spectacularly in emergencies. Some of these cases have gone on to become part of the aviation ‘folklore’. A few examples will suffice.

In US Airways Flight 1549 Capt. Sullenberger successfully ditched (i.e. landed in water) an Airbus A320 in 2009 following failure of all engines. The engines flamed out as a result of striking a flock of large geese shortly after takeoff. This was subsequently referred to as the ‘Splashdown on the Hudson’.

Another celebrated case is Air Canada Flight 143. In this case Capt. Pearson was able to successfully glide and land a Boeing 767-200 that had run out of fuel at altitude of 26,000 feet! The aircraft safely landed in a disused airfield. The event received the nickname ‘the Gimli Glider’ from the location of the airfield in Gimli, Manitoba.

The investigators recommended changes in operating procedures to avert similar challenges the future In both these cases .

Modern aeroplanes excessively ‘computerised’

Modern aircraft design greatly relies on computerised automation. Several industry players have voiced concerns that the highly automated aircraft are leading to loss of ‘airmanship’ skills among pilots, who are reduced to little more than ‘computer minders’.

One result is the increase in aircraft-pilot coupling problems. Operations of computerised systems are not always transparent to the flight crew. Findings from the investigation of Air France Flight 447 highlighted the role of the interaction between the pilot and the flight computer that was operating at an alternate law at high altitude. The importance of airmanship is poignantly demonstrated in the case of the Gimli Glider where Capt. Pearson was able manually glide a large aircraft. This was in no little measure due to the skills he obtained and honed as a hobbyist glider pilot in his free time away from the airline work.

Concern over new technology

Use of new technology raises other concerns. Passengers are understandably interested in their rights as regards their safety during flight despite the overriding objective of determining the cause of an accident for purposes of future safety. Airlines owe reasonable duty to passengers to operate safely and to utilise airworthy aircraft that are properly maintained and inspected. They are also expected to employ personnel who are qualified and well trained.

New technology is generally safer, more efficient and environmentally friendly. Its introduction however sometimes comes with teething problems and hiccups. Any new implementation comes with risk, and manufacturers are cautious to make changes to their designs that have historically functioned well. This can lead to stagnation.

General Aviation (private air transport) has been particularly hard hit by stagnation. Litigation involving product liability is largely blamed for the decline of this branch of aviation. Manufacturers face risks associated with design defect, manufacturing defect and failure to warn on the correct use of the product. They are therefore shy to introduce new aircraft. Upto US $100,000 of the price of a new private aeroplane covers potential liability insurance since 90% of crashes of this category of aircraft result in product liability actions against the manufacturer.

Compensation for victims

Compensation for victims of aircraft accidents in Commercial Aviation is relatively straightforward in most typical cases. The rights of passengers in international flights are governed by the Montreal Convention of 1999. It stipulates that affected passengers get a maximum value equal to 113,100 Special Drawing Rights if the airline is not proved to be negligent. This is currently equivalent to US$170,000. The figure is unlimited if it can is shown that the airline did not take all the required precautions for a flight. Several airlines have ceased operations as the result of an accident.

Airlines underwrite their aviation risks by using a number of insurers. The payout for victims depends on the liability determined. Indemnity claims may also be made against the manufacturer or the maintenance company.

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Dan Odido

www.aerospacekenya.com

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The Boeing 737 Max 8 – Taking no chances…

13/03/201928/10/2019
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

The saying that no news is good news is so true in aviation. The whole of 2017 passed without news of onboard fatalities in commercial aviation. Indeed there were no crashes of airliners on scheduled flights in the period between December 2016 and February 2018. This was the safest recorded period for commercial aviation. Then 2018 happened.

Deluge of accidents

They came in thick and fast: On February 11, 2018 an Antonov An-148 belonging to Saratov Airlines crashed minutes after taking off from Moscow killing all 71 people on board. A week later on February 18, an ATR 72-200 belonging to Iran Aseman Airlines crashed killing all 66 on board. On March 12, a Bombardier Q400 Flight 211belonging US-Bangla Airlines crashed in Nepal, killing 52 of the 71 people on board. On April 17 a Boeing 737-700 operated by Southwest Airlines as Flight 1380 suffered an uncontained engine failure resulting in one fatality. On May 18, a Boeing 737-200/Adv crashed shortly after take-off from Havana killing 112 of the 113 on board. On October 29 a Boeing 737 Max 8 Flight 610 operated by Lion Air crashed shortly after take-off in Indonesia killing all 189 on board.

2019 seems to continue from the record of 2018. Very worryingly, on March 10, 2019 a Boeing 737 Max 8 operated by Ethiopian Airlines as Flight ET 302 crashed shortly after take-off in Ethiopia killing all 157 on board. These last two cases, separated by less than five months, involved very new aircraft. The aircraft in the Ethiopian Airlines crash was only delivered on November 15, 2018. In the case of Lion Air Flight 610, the captain asked for the controller for permission to return to the airport due to flight control problems. Similarly, the pilot in Ethiopian case reported difficulties to air traffic control soon after take-off, and requested to turn back. The Lion Air crash is believed to have been caused by faulty sensor that suggested that the nose was tilted higher than it actually was. Several lawsuits have been filed by relatives of crash victims against Boeing.

The Boeing 737 Max is the fourth generation of Boeing 737. The aircraft are powered by CFM International LEAP-1B engines. This new series was first placed into service by Malaysian Malindo Air (owned by Lion Air group) on May 22, 2017. 350 of the aircraft have been delivered as of January 2019. The 737 Max comes in four flavours: Max 7, Max 8 and Max 9 to replace 737-700, 737-800 and 737-900 respectively. The 737 Max 10 is supposed to compete neck to neck with the Airbus A321neo and fill the gap in the market left by the Boeing 757.

Taking no chances

The two accidents involving the Max 8 aircraft have still not been shown to be linked, and the similarities may well be a coincidence. Some operators are however not taking any chances. Several countries have grounded the 737 Max 8. This is reminiscent of the grounding of Comets following a series of accidents in 1954. China, Indonesia, Fiji, Singapore have all grounded the Boeing 737 Max 8. China flies 97, more than a quarter of the aircraft in operation. European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has suspended all Boeing 737 Max operations in Europe until further notice. Some airlines have also taken action: Ethiopian, AeroMexico, Aerolineas Argentinas, Comair and Cayman Airways have grounded their fleets of the aircraft. US regulator, FAA has however so far declined to take action, saying that there is no basis for grounding the aircraft.

Popular workhorse

The Boeing 737 is a short to medium haul narrow body airliner. It entered into service in 1967, being developed from the Boeing 727. It was initially a flop, but has grown to become the most successful and produced airliner with 10,478 units produced as of end of February 2019. It is closely followed by the A320 family. A longer version was designated 737-200, with the initial version becoming 737-100. Only 30 of the original 737-100 were produced. The Boeing 737 has become the favourite workhorse of Low Cost Carriers, LCCs.

The second generation was the Classic series, featuring the -300/-400/-500 series. These were produced from 1984. They were powered by CFM International CFM56 high bypass ratio turbofan engines. The 737-400 was a longer version of the 737-300, carrying upto 188 passengers. It was 3.05 m longer, and included tail bumper to prevent tail-scrapes during takeoff. The 737-500 was shorter, a direct replacement of the 737-200.

The third generation is the Boeing 737 Next Generation (737 NG, or 737 Next Gen). These are the -600/-700/-800/-900 series, and were produced from 1996. They feature a redesigned wing, greater fuel capacity and glass cockpit (i.e. digital flight instrument displays, typically as LCD screens as opposed to analogue gauges and dials). They are equipped with CFM56-7 engines. The most popular is the 737-800 variant, now to be replaced by the 737 Max 8.

Technological blunders

Technological faults after ‘improvements’ are not unheard of. A series of crashes bedevilled the first commercial jet airliner, the British made de Havilland Comet in the early 1950’s. Three Comets were lost within a year of entering into service, resulting in their grounding. The fault was eventually traced to structural failure. These resulted in the improved and redesigned Comet 2, Comet 3 and later, Comet 4, but the company never recovered. The baton of commercial airliner design had been decisively passed across the Atlantic to US manufacturers who incorporated the results of the accident investigations into their designs of new commercial jet aircraft.

The technological improvements that are being investigated in the 737 Max 8 crashes are mainly software based. In developing the new aircraft, a larger engine had to be fitted under the wings of an aircraft design which was already low. The engines were moved slightly forward and higher up, in front of the Centre of Gravity, CoG. This however affected the handling of the aircraft in certain situations. The engine nacelles (covers) also produced lift at high angles of attack, further destabilising the aircraft. Boeing introduced a Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) to address this. The system activates when the sensed angle of attack exceeds a threshold. The system may surprise pilots who are unfamiliar with its operation. Accident investigators will be interested in unravelling if MCAS or its sensors did indeed play a role in the crashes involving an aircraft design that has otherwise flown safely for several decades. If true, this will be a great problem for Boeing, especially having in mind the sneaky way in which MCAS was introduced for such a crucial phase of flight!

The reports that the first officer in the Ethiopian Airlines case had only 200 hours of flight are also disconcerting. This is very low.

The writer heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University in Kenya. Views expressed here are his own. odido@aerospacekenya.com

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InSight Mars Landing Should Inspire Local Space Activity

02/02/201912/08/2024
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Space enthusiasts keenly followed the landing of a space vehicle on planet Mars on Monday 26^th November. The landing of InSight on the surface of the red planet was the second great space technology event of the decade. It was preceded by the 2012 landing of the Curiosity Mars Rover. The really exciting scientific parts of the mission will unfold over the next few months. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, InSight is a lander and not a rover; it will not move from its current location. The lander will deploy solar panels to power its activities. The landing place was selected close to the Martian equator so as to take full advantage of the sunlight. It will measure temperature, explore for water and get insight into the interior of Mars. It will also deploy a sensitive seismograph to measure ‘marsquakes’ and test the wobble of Mar’s rotation. InSight’s mission is purely scientific.

How we can benefit from the allure of outer space

The interest in outer space however goes beyond curiosity about the formation and structure of outer space and the universe. It provides an obvious strategic military advantage. This was clearly illustrated by the space race of the 1960’s, when the conquest of outer space was the greatest expression of scientific and military superiority.

The competition between USSR and USA brought a rapid succession of landmarks in the exploration of space: first sputnik in 1957; closely followed by Yuri Gargarin as the first human in orbit; first steps on the moon by Neil Armstrong; first space station; first reusable launch system; the list continued. However once the dust settled down, a new reality dawned. Space exploration is not cheap. Its use is however important in improving life for everyone on earth. Space technology has enabled applications in satellite communications, remote sensing, micro gravity research, meteorology, disaster management and several other applications.

Space exploration is collaborative

The modern approach in space exploration is cooperative and not antagonistic. The last years of the twentieth century taught us that space can only be managed as a civilian resource. USA now routinely uses Russian rockets to launch its satellites into orbit. NASA on its part has invited private industries that could most benefit from space in its space exploration endeavours. This spirit was earlier captured by Nikita Khrushchev, leader of USSR in 1959 when he said ‘We regard the sending of the rocket into outer space, and the delivering of our pennant to the moon as our achievement, and by this word “our,” we mean the countries of the entire world, i.e., we mean that this is also your achievement and the accomplishment of all the people living on earth.’ This was echoed by Neil Armstrong one decade later, following his first steps on the moon in 1969: ‘That’s one small step for a man, but one giant leap for mankind.’ It is in this light that the landing of InSight should be seen.

Space exploration is notoriously expensive. The InSight mission cost one billion US dollars over a period of ten years. Even the most powerful and stable economies on earth have seen sense in making collaborative efforts and partnerships. Space partnerships benefit all nations, not just the developed ones.

The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) performs for space what the International Civil Aviation Organisation, ICAO does for aviation. It promotes international cooperation in the peaceful use and exploration of space and technology for sustainable economic and social development.

Economic attraction of outer space

Space can be lucrative. It is likely to become the highest growth industry of the twenty first century. Outer space has practical and mundane applications well beyond the glamour and technical challenges of interplanetary landings and asteroid mining. UNOOSA lists the benefits of space activity in twelve major areas: agriculture; global health; environment; sustainable development; disasters; education; human settlements; research and development; transportation; communication; humanitarian assistance and international peace. Agriculture alone has over 15 UN conventions and programmes related to the application of space technology. Space issues are clearly down-to-earth.

Space agencies in Africa

African nations with space agencies are Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. Kenya joined this elite club with thle establishment of the Kenya Space Agency, KENSA only in 2017 after a long wait. Kenya had previously participated in space agreements with the other countries, seemingly half-heartedly. An earlier agreement by the six nations to launch a constellation of satellites seems to have petered off, with each country going its own way and launching substantially scaled down versions. Kenya eventually launched a cubesat in May 2018, well below the scale that was initially envisaged.

The recent establishment of the space agency however belies the long history of space activity on Kenyan soil. San Marco Space Centre was established in Kilifi in 1964 soon after the advent of the space age by Italian scientist, Luigi Broglio. Several rocket launches have been made from the facility. Luigi’s idea was to use the earth’s rotation to assist in reducing fuel for rocket launches with the added advantage of proximity of the sea to the east. This informed the location of the spaceport off the Kenyan coast at the equator.

KENSA has its work cut out. It should forge partnerships and establish policies that enable it to claim a stake in the growing industry. It should explore the possibility of reviving the failed constellation of African satellites with its partners across the continent. This can supplement the Global Positioning System as well as providing an option for the future. Other countries that have gone along this path are the European Union with the Galileo constellation, Russia with its Glonass constellation and China with Bedou. Over-reliance on a foreign-owned facility for the provision of strategic data and information is risky, as recent decisions in Trump’s USA have clearly illustrated. The possibility of jamming and re-introduction of selective availability of GPS signals in future is not far-fetched.

KENSA should attract and train the next generation of space scientists and engineers. Aspiring astronauts in the country should be given hope, and just maybe one day they could make that journey to outer space. Manned interplanetary spaceflight could happen in the lifetimes of many who are alive today. We should aspire to be part of that journey.

The writer is a university lecturer. odido@aerospacekenya.com

&#169 Daniel Odido

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Kenya Airways should focus on core business, forget JKIA

02/02/201928/10/2019
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Table of Contents

It is a classic case of putting a bandage on your foot because you have a toothache. The cheeky gambit by beleaguered Kenya Airways to run East Africa’s largest airport is an act of desperation, a case of a drowning man grasping at straws. Kenya Airways has undoubtedly had a horrible decade. It has persistently made losses, and its relation with its workers has not been the best.

Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, JKIA on the other hand has performed well, even though it has not fully exploited its advantages. The airport has consistently handled more passengers and its performance has seen it rated as one of the best airports on the continent. It has however gone mum on the second runway that would have seen it substantially upscale its operations. This came close on the heels of the cancellation of a Green Field terminal. It may soon rue not anticipating the expected expansion of air transportation on the continent. JKIA is the crown jewel of Kenya Airports Authority, KAA.

Airline business not easy

Airline business is not for the faint hearted. It is mainly about managing costs. The major operational costs are fuel and labour; whereas labour costs are usually fixed in the short term, fuel costs can vary wildly, based on the international price of fuel. Many airlines have strategies to hedge on the fuel costs by buying fuel in the futures market to lock in costs.

Fuel is the first fault line in Kenya Airways’ gloomy fortunes in recent years. The airline lost tonnes of money in an ill thought-out fuel hedging plan. The fuel hedging debacle, together with other operational issues, saw the airline make unprecedented losses in the country’s corporate history.

Secondly, the airline has not managed to achieve a harmonious working relationship between management and employees. It has had several acrimonious run-ins with its pilots and engineers.

To compound issues, the airline embarked on an ill-advised irregular and irrational fleet expansion, buying aircraft and opening up several unsustainable destinations. This was followed by a precipitous contraction, forcing the airline to dispose of these new, barely used aircraft at a great loss.

Challenges do not warrant airport take-over

Despite the difficult operating environment in aviation, the root causes of the problems facing Kenya Airways are mundane and well within its control. These are mismanagement of fuel hedging, reckless aircraft purchase, uncoordinated expansion and poor labour relations. Kenya Airways cannot cure these problems by going out and getting an airport under its wings!

There are definite advantages in having preferential treatment in an airline’s hub. Many airlines go about this by getting allocated a terminal for its operations. There is also merit in looking for synergies in the operations of an airline and an airport. These can be cured by making operational agreements.

Airports are big businesses and valuable strategic assets. They are some of the most important security installations in a country. International airports provide the main gateways to a country. Some people derisively refer to an airport as a short road (runway) with a hotel (terminal) at the end. Of course, airports are much more complex than this! The 4km ‘road’ at JKIA provides the region with a direct link to destinations in over 50 countries, and can connect a traveller with every corner of the globe. Airports are also profitable economic engines; USA’s commercial airports account for 7% of its 20 trillion dollar national GDP.

Kenya Airways’ fixation with JKIA is informed is by the operations of its competitor across the northern border. One of the justifications that Kenya Airways has made in bidding for JKIA is that Ethiopian Airlines runs Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, accruing several advantages.

Different business models

Ethiopian Airlines is state owned, Kenya Airways is not. The airline is having a heady run. It currently tops almost every list of Africa’s leading airline: by passengers carried, in terms of aircraft owned, by the number of destinations reached. It is also the continent’s most (only) profitable airline. It is implementing its Vision 2025 programme in a bid to become the most competitive and leading aviation group in Africa. What is not in doubt is the formidable management experience that it has accumulated. It holds stakes in numerous airlines. It has been in talks with governments of Chad, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Djibouti, Nigeria, and Mozambique to set up carriers through joint ventures. The airline also holds shares of Zambian Airways and Malawian Airlines. It runs Togo-based Asky Airline and has formed a new airline in Mozambique with full ownership. It is also buying a stake in Eritrean Airlines.

The path being walked by Ethiopian now may look similar to what Kenya Airways was up to a few years ago: aggressive fleet expansion and several new destinations. However its strategic plans are in no way similar to those of Kenya Airways. Ethiopian Airlines is experimenting with a multi-hub operation, with hubs in southern Africa, central Africa and western Africa. Will Kenya Airways start buying airlines to match this?

Some of EA’s current apparent strengths may well become liabilities and weaknesses in a future fully liberalised market. Already the company is exploring the possibility of liberalising itself and selling minority shares to other African states. This may cushion it from rocky waters ahead.

Kenya Airways is a private company not state owned, like its competitor. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Modern Kenya Airways was born out of a painful, but widely acclaimed privatisation process. The airline should not be fixated with the Ethiopians; Ethiopian Airlines is operating a different model. This is a case of what is good for the goose is not necessarily being good for the gander. Kenya Airways should leverage its private sector ownership that provides it with freedom and agility. It should not bring in the bogeyman of state ownership; we’ve been there before. Kenya Airways used to be state owned, and even then it did not turn in profits!

Kenya Airways should focus on core business

Kenya Airways should focus on the business of transporting air travellers safely, on time and at a reasonable cost. It should engage with government on how to achieve this. Many passengers are price sensitive, and Kenya Airways loses many passengers to its competitors due to this. The airline is generally more expensive than Ethiopian and Rwandair on many routes. There may be good reasons for this, but the average passenger is not interested in technical details of Air Service Agreements and Freedoms of the Air. As an example, a passenger pays almost twice as much to travel from Nairobi to Johannesburg using a Kenya Airways flight compared to connecting via Addis Ababa using Ethiopian, or via Kigali using Rwandair. He even pays less if he boards in, say Entebbe. These are the issues that Kenya Airways should be working on, not looking for airports to run.

Kenya Airways requires government assistance, but it does not need to run JKIA. It already gets preferential treatment at its JKIA hub. The airline will quickly find that it out of its depth in running an airport.

The proposed deal has the potential of bringing both organisations to grief. KAA should not be like the foolish builder who built his house on sand. The government should let JKIA be, and allow Kenya Airways sort out its issues instead of setting itself up to receive a poisoned chalice. Government is better advised to come up with a comprehensive aviation policy to guide the industry.

Kenya Airways should heed the saying, ‘be careful of what you ask for’.

The writer heads the Department of Flying Studies in Moi University. Views expressed here are his own. odido@aerospacekenya.com

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AerospaceKenya

Fuel too expensive? Switch to biofuels

18/09/201828/10/2019
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Table of Contents

When German engineer Rudolf Diesel invented the efficient engine that now bears his name, the idea was to provide affordable energy for smaller industries and farmers. He initially powered his engine using peanut oil and coal dust, and indeed he designed the engine to use vegetable oils. Diesel eventually discovered that the by-product of crude oil distillation called ‘distillate’ was the best match. This distillate was eventually renamed to ‘diesel fuel’, as it is currently known in many countries. Diesel observed in 1912 that “The use of vegetable oils as engine fuels may seem insignificant today but such oils may become, in the course of time, as important as petroleum and the coal‐tar products of the present time.” That time, the time for biofuels has now arrived.

Vegetable oils do not pollute and are environmentally clean; they are a renewable form of energy. However the use of this and other renewable sources raises issues of public taxation, especially when used to power motor vehicles.

Your car is a vehicle for taxes

Fossil fuel is not intrinsically expensive. The consumer price is escalated because governments use it for revenue collection. Your car is a convenient vehicle for carrying all manner of government taxes. Fuel is the blood of an economy; it is used to power vehicles and industries. It is also used in the household for cooking. Any tax on fuel is guaranteed to touch every member of society. Excise duty is charged on fossil fuels due to its polluting nature. Excise is a penalty that accounts for the negative effects of pollution that result from using fossil fuel. Governments will continue to tax fuel to raise revenue.

See: Tax is the devil in Kenya’s high fuel cost

See: Petrol price to hit Shs. 130 as VAT charge kicks in

The landed cost of petroleum was Shs. 57 per litre in early September when VAT was introduced. The difference in price between super, regular, diesel and kerosene is purely the result of the taxation policy. These include excise duty and value added tax. Levies charged on the fuel are merchant shipping levy, road maintenance levy, petroleum development levy, petroleum regulation levy and railway development levy. Other charges go towards storage and the movement of the fuel through the pipeline and by trailers. The oil marketers also get their share. All this added Shs. 72 to the price, more than doubling it.

Death and taxes

The only three things that are certain are death, taxes and a desire to pay less tax. Tax and levies constitute the largest fraction to the cost of fuel in Kenya, about half of the price; Caesar’s cut is truly the largest! Oil marketers also contribute to the high costs of fuel. They have previously colluded and exhibited monopolistic tendencies in their pricing. The Energy Regulatory Commission attempted to curb this collusion by capping the maximum price. The marketers however interpreted this as a de facto price control, and now price the product at the maximum price, regardless of their costs.

Use biofuels to cut out the middle-men

It is clear that ‘manufacturing’ your own fuel will cut out the middle men and deliver substantial cost savings. You can achieve this by using various renewable sources of energy. This however implies that you will be using the roads without paying the road maintenance levy if you fuel your car in this way! A few years ago the UK traffic police carried a series of raids to nab those using cooking oil to power their vehicles. They charged the drivers with tax evasion. The UK law now allows for tax free usage of 2,500 litres of vegetable oil for automotive purposes annually. Many other countries provide tax breaks for use of renewable fuels. Use of vegetable oil should ideally not be subject to excise since it is ‘green’ and not polluting.

The technology issues are more straightforward. The use of vegetable oil to power cars is a mature technology and is already widely applied. You can hack and modify your own engine or use your local mechanic to do the job. Modification kits are commercially available in many countries. You will however need to consider a few issues.

Vegetable oil can be used in three forms. It can be used straight as pure plant oil (PPO), or first utilised for other purposes and then the waste used for automotive purposes (waste vegetable oil, WVO). It can also be first converted to ‘biodiesel’. The typical diesel engine can use the fuel in any of these forms. Biodiesel can be used without any further processing or modification of the engine.

Used cooking oil

Waste vegetable oil may be obtained from typical restaurants; chips joints and other food processors that deep fry the food. Although it is called waste vegetable oil, it may contain animal and fish oil from cooking; a more accurate term is ‘used cooking oil, UCO’. The waste oil contains particulate matter, water and other impurities. The oil first needs some processing before use, otherwise it can damage the engine. Vegetable oil is also much thicker (that is more viscous) than diesel. In addition, the oil may crystallise in cold weather, blocking the fuel lines and fuel filters. This may require it to be preheated. The oil may have dangerous acid content. The equipment required for filtering your own fuel is readily available.

Using waste vegetable oil in a car may require some small modifications. Older diesel engines provide the best candidates for conversion.

The most popular solution is currently the ‘two-tank’ system. In this system we introduce filtered waste cooking oil into the normal fuel tank while we put diesel into an auxiliary tank. The auxiliary tank is usually located in the boot of the car.

Diesel fuel is used to start up the vehicle and also to flush the fuel lines before switching off the engines. The journey is carried out using the waste fuel. The waste fuel is fed from the main fuel tank. The switching between diesel fuel and vegetable oil is achieved by installing a pair of solenoids. Heat exchangers transfer the heat from the engine’s coolant system to the vegetable oil in order to lower its viscosity. The fuel supply is switched back to diesel before stopping the engine in order to clear the lines of vegetable oil. The vegetable oil may otherwise solidify and block the lines if it is left uncleared.

Renewable energy

Biodiesel is a renewable fuel that is made using natural vegetable oils and animal fats. It can also be made from waste vegetable oils. Using biodiesel has the advantage that it will generally not require you to modify a diesel engine.

Popularising the use of renewable energy will benefit the economy in several ways. It releases pressure from the importation of fossil fuel, hence saving foreign exchange for the country. Renewable energy will enhance energy independence. It will develop non-traditional industries, broaden the manufacturing base and provide employment. It will provide an impetus to establish industries for purification of the fuel and modification of vehicles. The provision of biofuel is a possible development industry for innovators to establish a new industry.

The policy framework is largely in place. It is now up to the innovators to take up the challenge and provide us with affordable energy.

The writer heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University. odido@aerospacekenya.com

Twitter: @aerospaceKenya

AerospaceKenya

State should provide new and bold aviation policy

16/09/201828/10/2019
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

A great injustice is being perpetrated against Kenyans, but they seem not to be aware of it. Or maybe they are helpless, and have just adopted the usual stoic countenance in accepting all that is handed to them. The injustice is about the airspace. The airspace is a natural resource, just like land and water. Indeed the government, through KCAA earns some Shs. 4 billion from providing air navigation services in the airspace. A modern aviation policy is urgently required.

The sky used to be the preserve of birds and a few adventurous aviators. This is no longer the case. What happens in the airspace above our heads is of concern to all of us; indeed a whole economy is developing in the ‘lower sky’ of a few hundred metres. This has brought issues of safety, security and privacy to the fore. The nascent economy has the potential to provide thousands of jobs and to unlock several innovations. This has however all been put in abeyance. The back and forth in the Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) regulations has clearly exposed the deficiencies of rule-making in aviation. It has also resulted in lost opportunities for a whole industry.

See: Sleeping through the drone revolution

Need for facilitative aviation policy

The injustice perpetrated against Kenyans has arisen as a result of both commission and omission. Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) has been accused of being heavy handed and acting in regulatory overreach. This is however a case of blaming the messenger. Waiting for KCAA to come up with a facilitative aviation policy is like expecting the police to come up with a comprehensive policy on security. No, the blame lies elsewhere.

Innovations in Mpesa were possible because Safaricom was fortunate to operate in a lacuna in the banking law; what was not prohibited was deemed to be allowed. There was no active law against mobile money transfer. Policy and regulation played catch-up once the sector burgeoned. This is however not possible in aviation that operates under, justifiably, strict regulations. There are no such gaps in the aviation law. These laws provide several prohibitions.

Abdicated responsibility

The first misstep in the drones saga occurred during the Jamhuri day celebrations of 2015. A media drone taking footage of the proceedings was immediately recognised as a potential threat to security. This gave the military an opportunity to barge into an area out of their mandate; civil security is a police function. They ordered a blanket ban on all RPAS. KCAA quickly acquiesced. The regulator started demanding clearance from the Ministry of Defence before processing applications to operate a drone in the country from January 2016.

Villain in the piece

The military is the villain in the piece for yet another reason. They are accused of hoarding large sections of the airspace and only allowing civil aviation to use small portions of it. The Integrated National Transport Policy recognises that ‘a large portion of Kenyan airspace is dedicated to full-time use by the military’. These “deficiencies” in Kenya’s airspace are recognised as undesirable and leads to use of circuitous air routes leading to higher operational costs by air operators.

The policy document laments that ‘discussions with the military authorities with a view to reducing this imbalance or allowing civilian utilisation of such airspace, when it is inactive have not been successful. Consequently, the mechanisms for allocating Kenyan airspace tend to deny users their optimum flight paths/profiles forcing them to divert and use less economic routes/paths resulting in delays or longer flight times.’ Next time when complaining about high airfares, you will know where to apportion part of the blame! Does the Kenyan airspace belong to the military, to be meted out in small doses to other legitimate users?

That such incursions into civil resources are possible are the result of abdication of responsibility by another section of government. The Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure makes policy for the aviation industry. Current aviation policy is contained in the Integrated National Transport Policy. The policy contained in this document is mainly focused on markets and trade issues. Maintenance and training get some mention. Manufacturing has however been given a short shrift. Further, the policy did not anticipate the innovations leading to RPAS. The policy on aviation requires a big shake-up to align it with the requirements of the 21^st century.

Negative regulations

The regulations that issue from this policy are stuck in the era of ‘don’t, don’t, don’t…..’. The proposed RPAS regulations which are now in limbo issue from this mindset. They are basically a lawyers’ document. It is full of prohibitions, is restrictive and prescriptive. Such a document will not provide an impetus for innovations. The voice of the Engineers’ Board of Kenya (EBK) has been silent in all this. This is a professional organisation that has distinguished itself by being silent in all the cases that its voice is expected.

The ten ‘thou shalt not’ commands of the old testament were eventually replaced by a single positive commandment in the new testament. The aviation industry similarly needs to move from the prohibitive constraints of the twentieth century to a more participatory and accommodative regulation regimen. The ‘don’ts’ in our regulations should now be reframed. Each regulation should demand compliance through positive imperatives; operators should be required to demonstrate how their operations meet the safety, security and privacy concerns. We require a positive policy framework that is not driven by fear, but by the appreciation of the ability of aviation to provide jobs and inject innovation into the economy.

A new focus on manufacture of aircraft and components required

More importantly, the aviation policy must guide development of the industry in modern times. A new focus on manufacture of aircraft and aircraft components should be clearly stated and supported. The design of light aircraft are not are complex as is commonly thought. Manufacture of drones should also be encouraged. This can be achieved in Science and Innovation Parks hosted at universities and polytechnics. These will provide ‘sandbox’ facilities for innovators. RPAS test sites and aerodromes should be established.

Reclaim the airspace

The airspace ceded to the military must be reclaimed. This should be availed to an independent body for management. This could provide a foundation for providing airways for drones, both civil and military. This independent body could be formed from the Directorate of Air Navigation Services which should finally be hived off from KCAA.

A division should be created in KCAA to handle only issues of drones. There are currently about 1,500 aircraft on the Kenyan register. Applicants for registration of drones even before the draft regulations were promulgated were several times more than the number of aircraft currently in the Kenyan register. It is conservatively estimated that about 5,000 drones will be registered within the first year of legalisation. We can draw a parallel with what has happened with the registration of motorcycles with the increasing popularity of boda bodas on the roads. Drones are poised to claim a large chunk of the aerial services market. They are ideal for infrastructure inspection, filming and survey.

Technology will always provide challenges. What has been invented cannot be un-invented. We should grab the opportunity provided by the emerging technologies, but implement measures to guarantee safety, security and privacy.

The writer is a university lecturer. He currently heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University. odido@aerospacekenya.com

This article was published in the Sunday Nation of 24th June 2018.

AerospaceKenya

Engineers should lead the way in innovation

16/09/201828/10/2019
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Engineers in Kenya are a quiet lot. They generally abide by the practice of ‘action, not words’ and take a fact-based approach to issues. However, being so self-effacing often works to their disadvantage. As the saying goes, ‘the hinge that squeaks is the one that gets oiled’; reticence has resulted in the engineering profession to be roundly ignored in the country, unlike professions like law and medicine. Work that should normally be done by engineers is either outsourced (usually to China) or given to laymen.

Engineering is the discipline that ‘harnesses the resources of nature for the benefit of man’. Engineers are creators; they make roads, generate power, run industries and build houses. They also design and manufacture various consumer items.

Creativity

Creativity generates new ideas and inventions, and ideas are the raw material of innovation.Kenyans are reputed to be innovative. The country was ranked third in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Global Innovation Index (GII) in 2018, behind South Africa and Mauritius. Much of the innovation in Kenya comes from non-technical sectors like finance. Strengths for Kenya in the Global Innovation Index included access to finance, especially micro-finance loans and business sophistication. An examination of the patents registered by Kenya Intellectual Property Organisation, KIPO confirms that the great majority of the patents are registered by local branches of foreign entities.The few local patents that are registered are from non-science and technology fields.

Innovation provides the vitality for growth and advancement. Firms that do not innovate die off, as can be seen in the recent change of fortunes of Kodak and Nokia. The same is true for societies.Innovation that is based on science and technology has a profound contribution to an economy.

One of the most accurate indicators for evaluating the capacity of a country to produce innovations is the proportion of engineers and scientists that it produces, and its capacity to retain them. There is a significant overlap between the most innovative economies and those that lead in engineering. The World Economic Forum lists the five most innovative countries as Switzerland, USA, Israel, Finland and Germany. All these countries appear in the Times Higher Education list of the top countries in Engineering. A study has found that 37 of the top 50 top inventions since the invention of the wheel required a solid grasp of engineering fundamentals.

Long engineering tradition

Kenya has a long engineering tradition. It has for long been the manufacturing hub of East Africa. The University of Nairobi has perhaps the oldest school of engineering in the region. The country has a long tradition of training engineers, and has also benefited from having some of its engineers trained in other countries. Several Kenyan engineers ply their trade in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, South Sudan and other countries, despite the number of engineers in the country,at 6,000, still being well below the ideal requirement of about 20,000. This indicates a low retention rate for the country.Kenya performs poorly in the Global Innovation Index for human capital and research.

Kenya does not make good use of the few engineers that it already has.Some of the types of jobs and projects carried out by Kenyan engineers in South Africa are done by Chinese engineers in Kenya. Doctors have made a great fuss over a handful of sorely needed Cuban medics operating in Kenya. It would be unheard of for foreign lawyers to work in Kenya. The only reason that engineers accept this state of affairs is probably because they have not made their impact felt in society.

Engineers should wake up and play their role in contributing to solve the country’s current challenges.Innovation involves the successful exploitation of new ideas and the application of better solutions that meet new requirements, un-articulated needs, or existing market needs. And it is not that there are no problems to work on.

Crying out for innovations

The country is crying out for innovations in renewable energy, building technology and materials, and even manufacture.There have been few ground-breaking innovations in these fields. A few engineers have however trail-blazed the path. The case of an engineer generating electricity by mini-hydro in Nyeri county and feeding this into the grid through a Feed in Tariff, FITis a good example.Renewable energy provides several opportunities for innovations. Engineers need to open up the space to enable them to effectively ply their trade and take its rightful position as the drivers of innovation.

Other avenues for innovation are in building sector.There have been several cases of buildings collapse or new bridges being swept away, even before being put to intended use. The voice of the engineers is unheard when roads in the country are falling apart. They are now blamed for the shoddy work, even in cases when non-engineers were used in the design. Electricity is quite expensive locally.

Engineers should understand that innovation is not only limited to invention, but also in the way that the work is organised, in measures to remove quacks from the profession, in methods that can be introduced to maintain standards, and indeed in the way that they communicate with society.

The writer is a lecturer. He heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University. Views expressed in this article are his own. aerospacekenya@gmail.com .

Twitter: @aerospaceKenya

This article was published in the Daily Nation: Engineers should lead way in way in innovation

AerospaceKenya

Why the use of drones should concern all of…

31/07/201812/08/2024
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Earlier this year in February a Robinson R22 helicopter collided with a drone resulting in a crash-landing in South Carolina, USA. The occupants of the aircraft fortunately escaped without injuries. This was the first reported aircraft crash involving collision with a drone.

See: Probe after ‘drone made helicopter crash’

Another collision between a helicopter and a drone was reported in Switzerland in May. Earlier, in September 2017, a Black Hawk helicopter collided with a DJI phantom drone in New York. The investigation report indicated that one of the causes of the accident was due to ‘UAS (i.e., drone) pilot’s incomplete knowledge of the regulations and safe operating procedures’.

See: NTSB Finds Drone Pilot At Fault For Midair Collision With Army Helicopter

Several close encounters between drones and manned aircraft have provoked great anxiety about the safe flight of aircraft especially during landing approach and take-off.

The incidents cited above could easily have occurred in Kenya. Helicopter usage is quite popular, while many drone users are not familiar with the rules governing the use of the airspace; some operators may not even be aware that such rules exist.

Drones are unsafe in other ways. A drone can cause injury, or even death when it strikes someone.The pilot of a remotely piloted aircraft was killed in a fluke accident in 2013 in New York after the model aircraft that he was flying struck him on the head. Impact by large drones can cause considerable damage to property and lead to loss of life.

Safety is the overriding consideration in aviation. Drones pose other safety risks. They are low flying and can get entangled with power lines leading to power outages and danger of fires.

Conversations about operation of drones revolve around three main issues: Safety, Security and Privacy.

All stakeholders need to participate in these conversations. This concerns you if you are interested in drones and would like to operate one, either for recreation or commercially. This concerns you if you are a pilot and regularly use the airspace. If you live on the ground and are concerned about your safety, security and privacy then this concerns you as well!

The second major concern with the proliferation of drones is security. Drones have earned notoriety in recent times due to their wide use in airstrikes by USA in conflict zones. Drones come in all shapes and sizes. The Reaper and Predator drones that have been used to inflict so much havoc in the Middle East are shaped, sized and powered much like conventional aircraft. In contrast, the DJI Phantom that is so beloved by videographers at weddings weights just over 1 kg, and is an electrically powered ‘quadcopter’. Both types of drones can carry munitions and weapons, and can be used to inflict damage by both state and non-state actors.

Drones have been flown over prisons to drop mobile phones and other contraband. They have been used for smuggling, and they can be used to carry out surveillance on a place before a crime.

Privacy concerns mainly revolve around unauthorised surveillance and dissemination of privileged information. People are accustomed to protecting their privacy by the use of fences and other physical barriers. They expect to enjoy privacy when in their private spaces. Common law considers two dimensions of invasion of privacy: Intrusion upon seclusion is concerned with the invasion of private space whereas publication of private facts that are offensive and are of no public concern is concerned with dissemination.

Drones can both intrude in private spaces and they also allow the collection and recording of copious amount of information. Drones have disrupted fences. They allow the invasion of privacy with much greater ease. Physical barriers no longer guarantee privacy. Drone usage throws us all open to the danger of becoming victims of all manner of peeping Toms.

Drones can track people and obtain vast amounts of data about their activities and interactions that could previously only be obtained at a great cost. These can be combined with other sources of data, for example, from persistent tracking by a Smartphone to give a worrying amount of data about somebody’s activities. Drones can be equipped with sophisticated equipment, including cameras with face recognition capability, number plate readers and thermal imaging; this totally strips us of all anonymity. A drone can follow and hover over somebody and cause emotional distress and alarm, introducing a new concept of ‘drone stalking’. Several cases have been reported of aggrieved people shooting at drones.

With all these risks, is the drone technology worth it? Should the uptake of this technology be tolerated at all? Why not just ban them? Indeed the laws governing drones in some countries mirror those that govern guns, cigarettes, alcohol and other vices: they betray a grudging toleration of the ‘vices’ and impose strict sanctions.

And yet drones have the potential to contribute to the economy in a big way when used for legitimate purposes. Adoption of drones can provide jobs, result in technology transfer, contribute to manufacturing, improve security and open up new frontiers of the economy.

What is the impact of these legitimate interests, and how can they be incorporated into policy and regulation? That is the conversation for another day.

The writer heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University. Views expressed in this article are his own. odido@aerospacekenya.com

This article was published in the Daily Nation: Potential benefits aside, the use of drones should concern us all

AerospaceKenya

Passenger drones: Moving from ride hailing to flight hailing

08/07/201812/08/2024
by Dan Odido

By Dan Odido

Ride hailing currently: Image of an Uber taxi — Uber taxi in Moscow. Ride hailing drivers were on strike in Nairobi

Ride hailing taxi drivers on strike

Ride hailing companies had a bad week. Their drivers were on the streets and not in their cabs. They were on strike demanding an increase of their cut of the earnings. The premier ride hailing company Uber, for example, pockets 25 percent of their earnings, and leaves them the balance to meet all the operating and other expenses. Drivers were also protesting the decision by the ride hailing company to limit their working hours by logging them off the app after twelve hours of continuous work. This is a safety measure that was introduced so as to combat driver fatigue when it was reported that drivers were overworking themselves to fatigue and causing accidents. Passengers who have got accustomed to this mode of transportation are now in a lurch.

See: Taxi app drivers down tools over low wages

See: Online taxi strike enters day three in Nairobi

Future of ride hailing

What is the future of ride hailing? Will the mother companies eventually run their own fleets and remove the drivers from the equation? Uber is already experimenting with self-driving (also called ‘autonomous’) cars. On top of all this, they are also experimenting with pilotless aircraft. An article that appeared in the Business Daily Africa in early March reported that Uber was one of the companies that had applied to the aviation regulator, Kenya Civil Aviation Authority KCAA for a permit to test their drones. This followed the drafting of the remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS) regulations. It was reported that Uber was working on passenger carrying drones that were to be operated as air taxis.

See: Facebook and Uber want to operate drones in Kenya

See: Nairobi skies to have Uber flying taxi

But Uber does not manufacture drones. Is the company changing its business? The model fronted by Uber is to utilise the pilotless aircraft in much the same way that it intends to operate its autonomous ride-sharing road vehicles. Uber Elevate is the company’s light-aircraft ride sharing project. Uber is partnering with several companies for the manufacture of the aircraft: Flight Sciences, Pipistrel Aircraft, Embraer, Mooney and Bell among others. It has also brought in NASA to assist in developing software for air traffic management. NASA has wide experience in air traffic management.

Air taxis are now the rage

Talk of the impending introduction of drone-based air taxis is currently all the rage. It has sucked in several start ups as well as some major aviation players and even car manufacturers. Several companies are working on some form of urban air mobility. These innovations are geared towards solving problems of traffic congestion in large cities.

Congestion in road transportation is not a new phenomenon. It is a feature of all large modern cities. Many industrialised countries attempted to evade congested roads by going underground through the implementation of subway trains. Underground trains are now very popular, with the Shanghai subway carrying about 10 million passengers in a day. Air taxis take the opposite direction, and attempt to solve the problems of ordinary commuting by resorting to the air instead. The mythical flying carpet from oriental tales was reputed to be able to transport its passengers in the twinkling of an eye. Los Angeles estimates that use of an air taxi will cut an eighty minute commute by car to four minutes by a flying taxi. Use of air taxis will obviously allow one to buy back several minutes from his life!

Uber is developing several air taxi concepts. It expects to start flying air taxis in Texas by 2023. It also intends to develop air taxi services for Los Angeles in time for the city’s 2028 Olympics.

Race for the prize

Uber are not the only ones interested in air taxis. Several companies are racing to launch the first successful passenger carrying drone. Chinese drone manufacturer Ehang have made the most significant progress after the testing its air taxi in Dubai. The public flight of the Ehang unmanned passenger carrier was revolutionary. Ehang have now carried over 40 passengers and conducted thousands of unmanned test flights including a vertical climb to nearly 1,000 feet.

Ride hailing in future: Image of a Ehang 184 electric passenger drone — Ehang 184 Passenger drone

Other companies are also interested. Airbus has successfully tested an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) autonomous drone, Vahana. The German Volocopter is an air taxi designed for two people. It features a ballistic parachute in case of catastrophic failure. They have also been tested in Dubai. The Volocopter will be compatible with a smartphone app, whereby you order one and have it pick you up like an Uber service. Munich-based Lilium is building a two-seater VTOL that it expects to be operational by 2025. Car manufacturers have not been left behind. Audi has designed a vehicle “for horizontal and vertical mobility”. Toyota has filed patents in VTOL control systems.

Dubai is actively seeking to be the pioneer in air taxi networks. It has the support of Dubai Road and Transport Authority that is advancing the VTOL network. Uber, Volocopter and eHang all have a presence in Dubai.

Autonomous passenger transportation is a big leap even by the standards of the burgeoning drone industry. This technology has now moved from technical design to the “real” world.

Transition from ride hailing: How an air taxi operates

So how does such a taxi work? What does it take to fly in such a taxi? Does one need a pilot’s license? Essentially you enter the vehicle, type in your destination (or use other means of input) and off you fly. Ehang 184 allows the passenger to mark his destination on an interactive map and the vehicle creates and executes a flight plan. Welcome to the brave new world! The era of the Flying Carpet has finally arrived….

Many of the proposed designs will initially have a “safety pilot” to take over in case of technology malfunction. In reality this is mainly to reassure passengers. Others will feature safety features like parachutes. How about navigation? Will there be crashes/collisions in the air? Different approaches may eventually be used.

These new generation air taxis are also variously called flying cars, roadable aircraft, vertical take-off and landing (VTOLs) and personal air vehicles. The air taxis are a result of a new convergence of technologies.

A lot of technological developments have made this possible. First is the way in which the aircraft are powered. There is a move towards electric-powered aircraft through the use of batteries. Another is developments in control of aircraft and global navigation satellite systems. Vertical Take-off and Landing aircraft (VTOL) have also been given new breath of life by air taxis.

Challenges of development of the new technology

The development of this new industry will have several ramifications. What will be the ownership structure of the autonomous taxis? Will there be limitations on foreign ownership? If allowed in Kenya, will they operate under drone laws or those governing passenger aircraft? What about freedoms of the air: will rules governing cabotage apply to foreign owned companies flying the passenger drones locally? Uber has already run into headwinds in several countries with its business model. How about safety? Who will take responsibility in case of accidents? We should learn from the March accident in which Uber’s driverless car fatally struck a pedestrian in Arizona, USA despite having a safety driver. Other questions may involve the local intellectual property resulting from the tests.

As the cabinet secretary for transport meets the striking ride-hailing taxi drivers, he may want to ponder on the challenges that Uber will eventually throw to his laps: What will happen when Uber removes the driver from the cab and the pilot from the aircraft, and still wants to transport passengers?

Air taxis will also be disruptive to commercial air transportation. If passengers accept to be flown by pilotless machines, then this will open the floodgates for a clamour to be allowed to apply the same technology in airlines. Low cost carriers have been pushing to be allowed to use only one pilot on their flights. Already there are proposals to use a single human ground pilot to supervise several single-pilot airliners. This could eventually lead to fully unmanned airliners.

Guinea pigs or partners in innovation?

So where are we in all this? Are we merely being used as a test bed so as to highlight any dangers, before the technologies are certified as safe in the developed world? Real world testing of new technology is crucial so as to guarantee safety.

Uber opened us to the possibility of ride hailing. It is now pointing us towards flight hailing. We should extract the maximum benefits from this technology. If we let the opportunity for becoming early adopter of this technology to slip away then Shakespeare’s words may well apply to us as a nation: “There is a tide in the affairs of men, taken at the flood leads to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures”

The writer is a lecturer. He heads the Department of Flying Studies in the School of Aerospace Sciences of Moi University. Views expressed in this article are his own. aerospacekenya@gmail.com . Twitter: @aerospaceKenya